Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x440d…ca12 crypto 598 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$337 (+3%) realized +$337 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%353W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$17
14 days−$208
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 40% -13.4%
≤30d 435 +2.8% -7.0% 57% 46% -9.9%
≤90d 598 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 47% -9.9%
all 598 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 47% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 47% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 15% -18.5%
15% -24.4% 10% -26.4%
20% -31.9% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses353 / 245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)598 / 598
History coverage40d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 598 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$12 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$8 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$2 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.00 (match) · 1981 history records