Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x440d…c76d sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$63 (+3%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$12
other 35% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -18.0% -25.9% 39% 39% -14.1%
≤30d 23 -18.0% -25.9% 39% 39% -14.1%
≤90d 23 -18.0% -25.9% 39% 39% -14.1%
all 30 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 43% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 43% -9.5%
10% -24.7% 40% -18.1%
15% -31.9% 37% -26.1%
20% -38.6% 30% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$38 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage223d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$33 +82%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$63 +62%
Trail Blazers vs. Heat Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 18 $355 −$137 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$38 +93%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$61 +149%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $131 +$83 +64%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$21 -21%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 +$43 +139%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$43 +84%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$44 +49%
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Nov 09 $79 −$48 -61%
Open de Moselle: Cameron Norrie vs Learner Tien Nov 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Hellenic Championship: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Nov 09 $40 +$35 +89%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Union Berlin vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Nov 08 $132 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 08 $218 +$32 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 07 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 15h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $164 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 16h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $101 16h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $215 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $70 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $61 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $8 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $80 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 40h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $20 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 31¢ $20 3d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $73 3d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 41¢ $10 3d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 41¢ $20 3d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) SELL Team Heretics 99¢ $93 4d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics 53¢ $51 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 33¢ $36 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $135 4d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 66¢ $91 4d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-09? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 221d
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $31 221d
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $79 221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 32¢ $40 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records