Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x4411…985e sports 612 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24,256 (-13%) realized −$24,256 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%299W / 312L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day99.4pace
Fees−$2,858est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,738
other 4% −$804
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +9.6% -0.8% 55% 50% -6.3%
≤30d 556 +0.5% -9.1% 49% 44% -9.0%
≤90d 611 +4.3% -5.6% 49% 45% -9.1%
all 611 +4.3% -5.6% 49% 45% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 45% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 41% -17.8%
15% -22.9% 36% -25.7%
20% -30.4% 29% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$150 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24,256
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses299 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,858
Open positions0
Markets (closed)611 / 612
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$296
Trades / day99.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 611 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$15 +145%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $369 −$290 -79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,072 −$1,072 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $701 +$1,281 +183%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $922 −$467 -51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $643 −$435 -68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $422 −$422 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $351 −$351 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $703 −$703 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $401 +$661 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $813 +$574 +71%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $735 −$653 -89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $944 −$72 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $422 −$13 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $580 +$204 +35%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $616 −$122 -20%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $804 −$314 -39%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,134 +$690 +61%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $213 +$139 +65%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,049 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $134 +$76 +57%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $821 −$91 -11%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $1,500 +$306 +20%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1,352 −$402 -30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $583 +$710 +122%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $290 +$357 +123%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $204 −$8 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$274 +137%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $700 +$66 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $499 −$431 -86%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 −$24 -75%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $448 −$242 -54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 14 $286 −$286 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$46 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $119 −$55 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $333 +$153 +46%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $132 +$68 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$33 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $113 +$90 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,004 +$239 +24%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1,314 +$448 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $626 +$685 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $643 −$17 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $673 −$673 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $483 +$160 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 83¢ $25 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 33¢ $10 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 64¢ $5 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $461 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $4 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $1 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $23 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $3 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $18 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $16 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $50 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $87 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $20 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $314 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $20 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 76¢ $966 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $5 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 32¢ $1 4h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $697 5h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $1 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $971 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,062 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $401 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $68 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $217 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $154 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $660 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $79 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records