Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x4411…45d1 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-3%) realized −$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$18
politics 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.6% -41.8% 0% 0% -32.4%
≤30d 4 -17.2% -25.1% 25% 25% -16.3%
≤90d 4 -17.2% -25.1% 25% 25% -16.3%
all 4 -17.2% -25.1% 25% 25% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 25% -16.3%
10% -32.2% 25% -24.3%
15% -38.8% 25% -31.7%
20% -44.8% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage30d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $50 −$1 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $51 +$19 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.43 · official $278.43 (match) · 20 history records