Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4412…f131 crypto 1042 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,377 (-6%) realized −$1,377 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%501W / 541L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day79.6pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$262
14 days−$385
30 days−$1,907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$1,904
sports 17% −$136
other 9% +$44
world 8% +$149
politics 3% +$33
tech 1% −$63
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$10
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -27.4% -34.3% 54% 23% -25.8%
≤30d 990 -3.2% -12.4% 48% 32% -16.9%
≤90d 1042 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 32% -16.6%
all 1042 -2.3% -11.6% 48% 32% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 32% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 27% -24.6%
15% -27.8% 24% -31.9%
20% -34.9% 22% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses501 / 541
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1042 / 1042
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day79.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1042 Trades
no open positions (97 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records