Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4415…b335 crypto 544 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16,022 (-6%) realized −$16,022 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%514W / 30L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$486per market
Trades / day62.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,814
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -4.2% -13.3% 92% 6% -13.6%
≤30d 413 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 7% -10.5%
≤90d 544 -1.5% -10.8% 94% 6% -11.5%
all 544 -1.5% -10.8% 94% 6% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 6% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 1% -20.0%
15% -27.2% 1% -27.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$588) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$399 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,022
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses514 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)544 / 544
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$486
Trades / day62.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 544 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $85 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $206 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $74 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $176 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $189 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $247 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $184 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $163 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $865 −$861 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $853 +$47 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $892 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $891 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $891 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $194 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $526 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $485 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $792 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $765 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $879 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $769 +$31 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $429 −$425 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $298 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $792 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $116 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $85 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $85 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $74 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $196 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records