Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x4418…4620 sports 26 markets active 6d ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-7%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$88
other 25% −$12
culture 9% +$56
politics 7% +$12
crypto 5% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -23.9% -31.1% 67% 33% -2.6%
all 26 -18.8% -26.5% 54% 46% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 46% -16.0%
10% -33.6% 35% -24.0%
15% -40.0% 23% -31.4%
20% -45.9% 12% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage254d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? Mar 20 $42 +$9 +22%
Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? Mar 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 18 $7 +$5 +68%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $50 +$56 +111%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $9 +$2 +27%
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Score Mar 13 $5 +$4 +89%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $100 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 6AM ET Oct 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5AM ET Oct 17 $12 −$11 -90%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 17 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2AM ET Oct 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Bruins vs. Golden Knights Oct 17 $6 +$1 +23%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Oct 17 $24 −$18 -76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 17 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Oct 16 $19 +$4 +22%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $32 +$12 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Sharks Oct 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 10 $21 +$8 +36%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 07 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Oct 07 $24 −$4 -18%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 01 $19 +$5 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $5 6d
Will Porto reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $42 90d
Will Aston Villa reach the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 90d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 91d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 93d
Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 93d
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $9 96d
Ferencvárosi TC vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 97d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 97d
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 97d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 97d
Knicks vs. Jazz SELL Knicks 100¢ $0 97d
Knicks vs. Jazz SELL Knicks 100¢ $53 97d
Knicks vs. Jazz BUY Knicks 94¢ $50 97d
Knicks vs. Jazz SELL Jazz $9 97d
Knicks vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 43¢ $50 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5AM ET SELL Up $1 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $12 243d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $12 243d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) BUY KT Rolster 67¢ $8 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $8 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 243d
Bruins vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 100¢ $7 243d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz SELL Jazz 100¢ $0 243d
Bruins vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 81¢ $6 243d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz SELL Jazz 17¢ $5 243d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 74¢ $24 243d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) BUY Bilibili Gaming 82¢ $19 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records