Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x441a…e9c7 weather 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$126 · open −$126
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$7
weather 37% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 0% -12.4%
all 7 -21.3% -28.8% 43% 0% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 0% -12.4%
10% -35.6% 0% -20.8%
15% -41.8% 0% -28.5%
20% -47.5% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$932
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions51
Markets (closed)7 / 58
History coverage78d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $150 $138 −$12 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? Yes 50¢ 53¢ $79 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 29? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 30? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $73 $64 −$9 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? Yes 51¢ 57¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 30? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $47 $49 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 29? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $19 $42 +$23 (+121%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 30? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $42 $36 −$5 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 30? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29? Yes 58¢ 66¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29? Yes 14¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 29? Yes 22¢ 27¢ $23 $29 +$5 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 30? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $24 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 30? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $18 $21 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 29? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 29? Yes 40¢ 14¢ $40 $14 −$26 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on July 1? Yes $21 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 29? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $7 $12 +$4 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 30? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 30? Yes $9 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 29? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29? Yes 35¢ $35 $8 −$26 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1? May 01 $200 −$78 -39%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 15 $109 −$2 -2%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 15 $2 −$1 -51%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 15 $199 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 15 $813 −$3 -0%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 13 $987 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY Yes $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 29? BUY Yes $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 30¢ $29 59m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 59m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 30? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C or below on June 29? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 30? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $932.43 · official $951.94 · 293 history records