Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x441d…544d sports 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$51,881 (+10%) realized +$51,785 · open +$96
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%82W / 69L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$3,431per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Fees−$9,524est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,489
7 days−$2,334
14 days+$32,324
30 days+$52,203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$55,118
other 12% +$2,023
weather 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 40% -31.7%
≤30d 51 +31.0% +18.5% 55% 39% +4.1%
≤90d 151 +12.5% +1.7% 54% 44% +1.0%
all 151 +12.5% +1.7% 54% 44% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 44% +1.0%
10% -8.0% 40% -8.7%
15% ← realistic here -16.9% 35% -17.5%
20% -25.0% 30% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,480) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,451 vs −$933 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2,110
Realized+$51,785
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses82 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$9,524
Open positions3
Markets (closed)151 / 148
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$3,431
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? No 28¢ 28¢ $1,086 $1,078 −$9 (-1%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $926 $1,031 +$105 (+11%)
Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 AL East title? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Jun 28 $450 −$450 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 28 $490 −$490 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 28 $471 −$471 -100%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 28 $497 −$497 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 28 $510 −$510 -100%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $1,766 −$1,759 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $1,500 +$500 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $287 +$112 +39%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $640 +$1,360 +212%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 27 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $3 +$7 +276%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $250 +$346 +138%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,616 −$197 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $1,264 +$810 +64%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $1,500 +$500 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $1,580 +$420 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $91 +$16 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 20 $579 −$579 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6,178 +$60 +1%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20,135 +$2,007 +10%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $18,939 +$261 +1%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,150 +$31 +3%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $664 +$19 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $530 +$465 +88%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,500 +$2,500 +100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $1,501 −$1,500 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 14 $238 −$238 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $860 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $105,072 +$11,058 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $87,311 +$21,450 +25%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $36 +$56 +157%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $498 +$7 +2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $2,553 +$4,595 +180%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1,480 −$1,480 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $2,340 +$660 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $714 −$714 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $6,450 +$3,550 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5,800 −$5,800 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $21,121 +$28,703 +136%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $31,126 −$6,987 -22%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $16,411 −$4,845 -30%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $45 +$30 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $596 +$11 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $1,510 −$1,510 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $4 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $1 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $0 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes $1 1h
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? BUY No 26¢ $573 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 26¢ $19 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 26¢ $114 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 25¢ $1,451 2h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $44 8h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $8 8h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $50 8h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $2 8h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Rafael Fiziev 50¢ $897 8h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 72¢ $7 14h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 72¢ $77 14h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Kaan Ofli 32¢ $113 14h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 72¢ $3 14h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $54 14h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 72¢ $3 14h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $5 14h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 72¢ $3 14h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Kaan Ofli 32¢ $14 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,110.03 · official $2,110.03 (match) · 3500 history records