Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x441d…bc79 crypto 1391 markets active 3d ago coverage 58d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$435 (-2%) realized −$435 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%847W / 863L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,136
sports 0% −$5
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 380 -35.8% -41.9% 13% 11% -82.4%
≤30d 701 -31.8% -38.3% 25% 24% -55.4%
≤90d 1710 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 48% -24.8%
all 1710 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 48% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 48% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 46% -32.0%
15% -27.8% 40% -38.6%
20% -34.9% 24% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$435
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses847 / 863
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1710 / 1391
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1710 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +1118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +646%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records