Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4420…5658 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$207 (-16%) realized −$145 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days−$101
14 days−$142
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$269
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.9% -29.3% 44% 44% -28.9%
≤30d 32 -27.0% -34.0% 44% 44% -27.0%
≤90d 32 -27.0% -34.0% 44% 44% -27.0%
all 32 -27.0% -34.0% 44% 44% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 44% -27.0%
10% -40.3% 41% -34.0%
15% -46.1% 34% -40.4%
20% -51.4% 25% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage22d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 15¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $61 +$35 +58%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $41 +$78 +192%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $109 +$20 +18%
Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs PlayTime (+2.5) Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $81 +$48 +60%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$16 +31%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $24 −$3 -13%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$15 +73%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$13 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $15 +$7 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $29 +$16 +56%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $10 +$7 +73%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $25 −$22 -88%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $20 +$15 +72%
Will BetBoom Team win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 4¢ $2 16m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 5¢ $10 29m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 31¢ $20 31m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 31¢ $15 32m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 31¢ $7 36m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 38¢ $2 39m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 23¢ $7 43m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 41¢ $3 52m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 66¢ $28 55m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 68¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 69¢ $176 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 71¢ $151 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $96 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $30 13h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $119 30h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 26¢ $10 31h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $10 31h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 39¢ $20 31h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $61 46h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $30 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 67¢ $40 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 52¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 58¢ $51 4d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 89¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 59¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 64¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 65¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $129 6d
Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs PlayTime (+2.5) SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 89 history records