Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4420…d6f2 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$476 (-51%) realized −$293 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day51.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$760
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$144 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$293
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day51.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $51 $28 −$23 (-46%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+70%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? No 7¢ 4¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-37%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $158 $6 −$152 (-96%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$6 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $356 −$336 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $23 −$22 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $145 −$138 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $21 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 23m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL No 3¢ $32 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL No 3¢ $0 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL No 3¢ $0 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL No 3¢ $0 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL No 3¢ $0 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL No 3¢ $5 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 45¢ $113 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 45¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 10¢ $29 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $24 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $27 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.64 · official $87.40 · 84 history records