Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4422…5362 world 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$621 (-10%) realized −$508 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%12W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days+$163
14 days+$46
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$476
other 34% −$344
politics 12% +$171
sports 8% −$34
finance 2% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.0% -14.1% 30% 30% +4.1%
≤30d 24 -21.1% -28.7% 21% 17% -13.5%
≤90d 38 -20.5% -28.0% 24% 16% -16.3%
all 53 -22.3% -29.7% 23% 13% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 13% -19.2%
10% -36.4% 11% -26.9%
15% -42.6% 9% -34.0%
20% -48.2% 8% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$31 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$508
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses12 / 41
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage168d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $121 $110 −$11 (-9%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 26¢ $67 $57 −$10 (-15%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 1¢ $90 $2 −$88 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $199 −$65 -32%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $645 +$257 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 16 $25 −$18 -71%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $35 −$14 -38%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$34 +320%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $58 +$77 +131%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $32 −$3 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $113 +$12 +10%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $29 +$51 +175%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 11 $126 −$34 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $47 −$8 -16%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $133 −$7 -6%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 08 $43 −$26 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $251 −$64 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $269 −$18 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $70 −$64 -92%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 11 $395 +$1 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $59 −$13 -22%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $104 +$28 +27%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 11 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 10 $213 +$46 +22%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 10 $68 −$7 -10%
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Apr 09 $165 −$85 -51%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $182 −$33 -18%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $443 +$22 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 06 $21 −$2 -11%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 05 $24 −$2 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 31 $45 −$21 -46%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $116 −$70 -61%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Mar 28 $197 −$80 -41%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $130 −$5 -4%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $108 −$77 -71%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $99 −$67 -68%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 19 $290 −$66 -23%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $44 −$17 -39%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $104 −$9 -9%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $88 +$123 +140%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Mar 01 $89 −$6 -7%
Will France win? Feb 15 $55 +$1 +3%
Will England win? Feb 14 $271 −$94 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $135 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $199 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $69 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $90 39h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $125 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $22 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 47¢ $44 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $23 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 8¢ $35 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 14¢ $35 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $58 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $29 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $64 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 38¢ $125 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 34¢ $113 8d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $45 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $47 9d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $47 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.87 · official $192.98 (match) · 146 history records