Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4429…722e sports 679 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (308 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$470 (-6%) realized −$424 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%340W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day308.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$250
sports 38% −$199
other 4% −$146
politics 1% +$16
finance 1% −$13
economics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (308 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 648 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 41% -16.0%
≤30d 648 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 41% -16.0%
≤90d 648 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 41% -16.0%
all 648 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 41% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover308.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 41% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 31% -24.0%
15% -29.8% 22% -31.4%
20% -36.7% 16% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$424
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses340 / 308
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions31
Markets (closed)648 / 679
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day308.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 95¢ 88¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 92¢ 68¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 86¢ 63¢ $29 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 79¢ 96¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 62¢ 60¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Baltimore Orioles 33¢ 82¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+148%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 54¢ 88¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+62%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? No 91¢ 74¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-19%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 44¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+127%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Yes 72¢ 56¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-23%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 45¢ 46¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Yes 77¢ 59¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 61¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 77¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 81¢ 74¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 52¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Yes 62¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 46¢ 27¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 36¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 30? Yes 71¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$11 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $82 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $117 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $81 −$46 -58%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $86 +$25 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $94 −$48 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $85 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +23%
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more Jun 24 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 30? Jun 24 $9 $0 +4%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $92 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $91 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $93 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 12m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 84¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $96 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $17 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $82 47m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 29¢ $2 51m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 29¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $99 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $18 57m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 46¢ $3 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $17 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $6 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $2 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.87 · official $236.06 (match) · 2623 history records