Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x442c…3db8
crypto · 2040 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,265 -123%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$213 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1363 / 505
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1868 / 2040
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day112.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1868 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$910
7 days−$832
14 days−$534
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$698
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 635 -42.9% -48.4% 42% 42% -64.5%
≤30d 1868 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 71% -14.0%
≤90d 1868 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 71% -14.0%
all 1868 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 71% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover112.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 71% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 56% -22.3%
15% -24.7% 31% -29.8%
20% -32.1% 18% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records