Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x442f…e7a2 other 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 367d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,281 (-8%) realized −$2,281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$768per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 367d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$8,509
world 13% −$1,995
sports 3% +$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +46.1% +32.2% 50% 50% +46.7%
≤30d 32 +12.1% +1.4% 41% 38% +23.9%
≤90d 32 +12.1% +1.4% 41% 38% +23.9%
all 37 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 35% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 35% +12.8%
10% -16.8% 32% +2.0%
15% -24.8% 32% -7.9%
20% -32.2% 30% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,379 vs −$568 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage367d
Avg bet$768
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $822 −$800 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1,149 −$1,120 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $820 −$800 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,030 +$967 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1,538 +$8,451 +549%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $769 +$581 +76%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $254 +$246 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $306 −$299 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $565 $0 +0%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $633 +$1,865 +295%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $510 +$1,154 +226%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $456 +$931 +204%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $508 +$602 +118%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,013 +$512 +17%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $205 −$200 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,516 +$801 +53%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $203 +$231 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $530 +$2,026 +382%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $718 −$700 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,205 +$161 +7%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $499 −$494 -99%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jun 24 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $1,000 +$779 +78%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $822 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,149 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $820 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,997 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,990 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $118 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $203 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $203 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $24 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $300 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $150 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $499 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records