Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4430…541f sports 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-16%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%21W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$102
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$601
weather 20% −$79
other 10% +$42
economics 8% +$70
politics 2% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -23.8% -31.1% 31% 28% -19.4%
≤30d 43 -24.1% -31.3% 30% 28% -22.7%
≤90d 43 -24.1% -31.3% 30% 28% -22.7%
all 62 -27.7% -34.6% 34% 31% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 31% -26.3%
10% -40.8% 26% -33.4%
15% -46.6% 21% -39.8%
20% -51.8% 18% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$35 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage160d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $67 $69 +$3 (+4%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 36¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $82 −$81 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 +$30 +150%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$62 +124%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $60 −$4 -7%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $58 +$50 +87%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $23 −$23 -99%
Tim Weah: 1+ goals Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$53 +105%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 −$2 -10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $68 +$15 +22%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $37 −$2 -5%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $92 −$32 -35%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$25 +163%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $33 −$3 -9%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$46 +345%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$6 +22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $11 +$24 +216%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $37 +$53 +143%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 −$30 -55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $37 +$33 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$15 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $138 −$7 -5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -30%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Feb 01 $75 −$75 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Feb 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? Jan 31 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $293 +$70 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 22-23°F on January 2 Jan 27 $143 +$8 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $26 5m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $68 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $6 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $11 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $46 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $69 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $63 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 4¢ $4 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $67 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $56 8h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 44¢ $50 8h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 23h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 23h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 92¢ $94 23h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $51 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 10¢ $10 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.16 · official $90.28 · 196 history records