Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x4433…0c4b sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%44W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$59
other 11% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.5% +0.8% 40% 40% -21.4%
≤30d 8 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 50% -15.9%
≤90d 52 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 52% -1.3%
all 85 +0.4% -9.2% 52% 49% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 49% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 45% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 44% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 39% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$39 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses44 / 41
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage130d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $243 −$49 -20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $129 +$66 +51%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $42 +$33 +80%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $41 +$28 +68%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings - Who wins May 23 $41 −$40 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $33 −$33 -99%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings - Who win May 21 $53 +$47 +89%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Who w May 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $32 −$30 -95%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $47 +$37 +79%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 15 $20 +$25 +124%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 11 $12 +$10 +86%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 11 $20 +$13 +65%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $20 +$21 +105%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 06 $43 +$53 +124%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 28 $15 +$11 +73%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 25 $30 +$20 +67%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 20 $50 +$70 +140%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 15 $18 +$14 +76%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 14 $20 +$24 +119%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 13 $50 +$62 +124%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $20 +$22 +109%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $20 −$2 -8%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Punjab Kings Apr 06 $30 −$4 -12%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 06 $20 +$24 +119%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 06 $30 +$16 +55%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 03 $20 +$20 +101%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 01 $30 +$30 +101%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 31 $30 +$30 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $103 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 71¢ $95 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 57¢ $8 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 60¢ $91 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 40¢ $91 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $42 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 65¢ $152 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 96¢ $194 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 63¢ $129 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $43 10h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 38h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 35¢ $71 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $5 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $51 9d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 97¢ $75 21d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $42 21d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 99¢ $68 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 58¢ $41 23d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings - Who wins BUY Lucknow Super Giants 51¢ $41 29d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 17¢ $21 30d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 51¢ $33 30d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings - Who win SELL Chennai Super Kings 100¢ $100 31d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings - Who win BUY Chennai Super Kings 50¢ $53 31d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians - Who w BUY Mumbai Indians 51¢ $53 32d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Lucknow Super Giants 44¢ $41 33d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Chennai Super Kings 46¢ $32 34d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 53¢ $47 35d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 31¢ $21 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.26 · official $184.27 · 169 history records