Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4433…9d34
other · 75 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$161 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$159 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,234
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions42
Markets (closed)33 / 75
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day58.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 42 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$159
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $202 $201 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $111 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $88 −$8 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $34 $45 +$12 (+35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $18 −$1 (-8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 57¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $528 +$213 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $12 +$46 +387%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$12 +122%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $124 +$81 +65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $142 −$73 -51%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $144 −$142 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$1 -18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $74 +$89 +121%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $89 +$117 +132%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $84 −$2 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $219 +$86 +39%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $84 −$79 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$18 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $64 −$45 -70%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $49 +$21 +43%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$27 +276%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$6 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% −$17
sports 20% +$180
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 18m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $103 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $99 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $12 3h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $72 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 95¢ $99 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $6 8h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $10 9h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 9h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $49 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $63 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 12¢ $64 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 9h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $54 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 33% +0.9%
≤30d 33 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 33% +0.9%
≤90d 33 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 33% +0.9%
all 33 -2.0% -11.3% 36% 33% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 33% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 33% -8.7%
15% -27.6% 33% -17.5%
20% -34.7% 21% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,233.51 · official $1,233.53 (match) · 242 history records