Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4433…ee15 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$43 (+3%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate66%27W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day103.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.9% -14.0% 66% 37% -17.1%
≤30d 41 -4.9% -14.0% 66% 37% -17.1%
≤90d 41 -4.9% -14.0% 66% 37% -17.1%
all 41 -4.9% -14.0% 66% 37% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 37% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 22% -25.0%
15% -29.7% 17% -32.3%
20% -36.6% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses27 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day103.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$53 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $160 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $107 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $126 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $12 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records