Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4435…786f
other · 500 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,814 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,648 · open −$70
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$365
Realized−$2,648
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses69 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions10
Markets (closed)444 / 500
History coverage12d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day245.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 10 History 444 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,182
7 days−$2,098
14 days−$2,648
30 days−$2,648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 62¢ $92 $75 −$17 (-19%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 99¢ 98¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 57¢ 40¢ $99 $70 −$29 (-29%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bill Reid win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? No 97¢ 91¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? No 30¢ 20¢ $33 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? No 13¢ 12¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 59¢ 54¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Yes 16¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? No 3¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-83%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in May? No 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in May? Jun 14 $0 −$3 -1964%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 14 $0 −$6 -10209%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $378 −$6 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $1,022 −$10 -1%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $202 −$6 -3%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 14 $38 −$25 -64%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 14 $2,101 −$115 -6%
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 14 $81 −$2 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 14 $160 −$8 -5%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $909 −$8 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 14 $176 −$1 -1%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $128 −$7 -5%
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Jun 14 $33 −$8 -23%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Will there be 5+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $177 −$2 -1%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Jun 14 $136 −$4 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,519 −$36 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 14 $177 +$1 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 14 $306 −$8 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $178 −$3 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $401 −$7 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Sw Jun 14 $126 −$3 -3%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $175 −$5 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4,813 −$42 -1%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 13 $103 −$14 -13%
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 13 $271 −$14 -5%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 13 $170 −$6 -4%
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $312 −$4 -1%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $85 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $37 −$28 -77%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 13 $1 $0 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 13 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 Jun 13 $7 −$2 -26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$1,365
sports 19% −$218
politics 16% −$357
world 12% −$299
finance 8% −$182
crypto 8% −$152
tech 4% −$86
economics 2% −$20
culture 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 33¢ $1 1m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 67¢ $1 1m
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2m
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro SELL No 62¢ $3 4m
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $64 8m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $64 8m
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 22m
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 22m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 7¢ $11 40m
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 3¢ $2 46m
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 6¢ $3 46m
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 6¢ $3 46m
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St SELL Yes 75¢ $79 47m
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 76¢ $81 47m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 12¢ $20 48m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 12¢ $21 48m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $35 49m
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $106 49m
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $16 52m
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $103 52m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 31¢ $55 53m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 69¢ $121 53m
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $124 58m
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $7 1h
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $8 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 22¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 -5.2% -14.3% 21% 11% -12.9%
≤30d 444 -5.1% -14.1% 16% 8% -12.9%
≤90d 444 -5.1% -14.1% 16% 8% -12.9%
all 444 -5.1% -14.1% 16% 8% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover245.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 8% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 5% -21.2%
15% -29.8% 2% -28.8%
20% -36.7% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.47 · official $406.42 · 3500 history records