Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4438…4c62
crypto · 444 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$618 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$618 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses197 / 247
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)444 / 444
Avg bet$13
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 444 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$7
14 days−$5
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$5 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $16 −$9 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 28 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 27 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 27 $18 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 27 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 27 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $7 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$586
sports 13% +$263
world 6% −$180
other 4% −$79
politics 4% −$45
finance 3% +$19
culture 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $8 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.7% -6.2% 77% 50% -6.1%
≤30d 155 -8.9% -17.6% 55% 34% -11.9%
≤90d 271 -11.9% -20.3% 47% 30% -18.9%
all 444 -11.6% -20.0% 44% 31% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 31% -19.9%
10% -27.7% 23% -27.5%
15% -34.7% 15% -34.5%
20% -41.1% 11% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3299 history records