Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4439…ad47
crypto · 357 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,803 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,869 · open +$66
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$149
Realized−$5,869
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses170 / 291
Open positions1
Markets (closed)461 / 357
History coverage15d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day223.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 461 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,570
7 days−$5,691
14 days−$5,268
30 days−$5,869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $83 $149 +$66 (+79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $107 $0 −$107 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $171 $0 −$171 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $171 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$85 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$67 -225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $126 −$126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $38 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $54 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $7 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $22 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $56 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 285 -30.2% -36.9% 29% 24% -32.7%
≤30d 461 -22.0% -29.4% 37% 32% -23.4%
≤90d 461 -22.0% -29.4% 37% 32% -23.4%
all 461 -22.0% -29.4% 37% 32% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover223.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 32% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 28% -30.7%
15% -42.3% 24% -37.4%
20% -48.0% 21% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.23 · official $71.24 · 3500 history records