Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
44 0x443b…e8bb sports 346 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22,622 (+7%) realized +$26,136 · open −$3,514
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%156W / 188L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$971per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$2,977est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21,763
7 days+$41,510
14 days+$35,589
30 days+$40,760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$32,117
other 26% −$16,859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +51.1% +36.7% 70% 70% +37.2%
≤30d 84 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 46% +21.6%
≤90d 281 -6.1% -15.0% 44% 44% -2.6%
all 344 -5.0% -14.0% 45% 45% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 45% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 45% -13.3%
15% -29.8% 45% -21.6%
20% -36.7% 44% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,414) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,092 vs −$806 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$4,927
Realized+$26,136
Unrealized−$3,514
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses156 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,977
Open positions2
Markets (closed)344 / 346
History coverage106d
Avg bet$971
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 22¢ $6,120 $2,580 −$3,540 (-58%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2,321 $2,347 +$26 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5,926 +$5,810 +98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $6,637 +$8,363 +126%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5,988 −$5,900 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,450 +$2,550 +104%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3,280 +$4,720 +144%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,750 +$4,250 +113%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3,407 +$4,193 +123%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,790 −$5,760 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5,090 −$5,090 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,400 +$3,600 +150%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,380 +$3,620 +83%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $6,180 +$5,820 +94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,440 +$2,560 +178%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5,119 +$5,241 +102%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,540 +$3,460 +98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,384 +$4,162 +123%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,140 +$1,860 +163%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2,027 +$1,609 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,235 −$1,235 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,555 +$2,445 +96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $355 −$355 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2,037 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $557 +$513 +92%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $682 +$1,000 +147%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $610 −$600 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 09 $1,948 −$1,920 -99%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $85 −$84 -99%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $304 +$273 +90%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $305 +$320 +105%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Spread: Georgia (-1.5) Jun 05 $309 −$304 -98%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,151 −$1,135 -99%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $84 −$84 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $204 −$200 -98%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $203 +$173 +85%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $1,522 +$1,419 +93%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $406 −$300 -74%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $203 −$16 -8%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $3,049 +$3,617 +119%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) Jun 01 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Will Kagoshima United FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,729 −$1,702 -98%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 2.5 May 30 $1,167 +$1,004 +86%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $1,373 +$1,714 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $104 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $7 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1,383 48m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 49m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 51m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $7 52m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 55m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 57m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 58m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 58m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 58m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 59m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $8 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $53 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $6 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $12 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $690 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2,070 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $4,140 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,927.18 · official $5,347.18 · 1380 history records