Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4441…a429 sports 42 markets active 2d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-29%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$21
other 27% −$12
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -75.6% -78.0% 17% 17% -89.8%
≤30d 7 -79.1% -81.1% 14% 14% -91.0%
≤90d 40 -37.1% -43.1% 38% 38% -37.2%
all 40 -37.1% -43.1% 38% 38% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 38% -37.2%
10% -48.5% 32% -43.2%
15% -53.5% 32% -48.7%
20% -58.1% 15% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage76d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $5 +$4 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 19 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $2 −$1 -30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $2 +$1 +60%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Apr 12 $2 $0 +17%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 12 $2 +$1 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 11 $2 −$1 -52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $5 +$2 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $2 +$1 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $2 +$1 +46%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Monte (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $2 −$1 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs 9INE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Pla Apr 01 $1 $0 -48%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $2 +$3 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 2¢ $0 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 45h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $10 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 46¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 23¢ $1 34d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 3¢ $1 40d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 62¢ $5 41d
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 57¢ $5 42d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 62¢ $2 45d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 42¢ $5 47d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $5 55d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 34¢ $1 56d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 21¢ $1 56d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Kiwoom DRX 13¢ $1 56d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Weibo Gaming 42¢ $1 60d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 59¢ $2 60d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $5 60d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 70¢ $2 60d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 62¢ $2 63d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso SELL Team Secret Whales 85¢ $2 66d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso BUY Team Secret Whales 72¢ $2 66d
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY Oh My God 77¢ $2 66d
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL JD Gaming 17¢ $1 67d
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 35¢ $2 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records