Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4445…1156 crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (396 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$127 (+14%) realized +$131 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day396.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$30
other 48% +$119
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (396 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -16.7% -24.7% 34% 28% +1.0%
≤30d 50 -16.7% -24.7% 34% 28% +1.0%
≤90d 50 -16.7% -24.7% 34% 28% +1.0%
all 50 -16.7% -24.7% 34% 28% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover396.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 28% +1.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 20% -8.6%
15% -38.5% 16% -17.5%
20% -44.5% 14% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day396.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 −$5 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $81 −$6 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $251 +$79 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$4 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$6 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $44 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$8 +182%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$12 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$13 +250%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$8 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$5 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $54 +$57 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.57 · official $67.57 (match) · 450 history records