Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:44:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
44 0x4447…cc47 other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,140 (+0%) realized +$1,139 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1,681per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$136
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$248
politics 38% −$124
sports 15% +$1,556
world 1% −$14
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 32 +2.3% -7.4% 16% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 112 -5.5% -14.5% 11% 8% -9.4%
all 150 +2.7% -7.1% 19% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 15% -9.1%
10% -16.0% 15% -17.8%
15% -24.1% 14% -25.8%
20% -31.5% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,428) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$10 · ×8.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$1,139
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,681
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $445 $446 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $4,477 −$6 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,232 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $314 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,638 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,433 −$5 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $5,548 −$8 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,667 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,272 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,808 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $5,444 −$5 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $86 +$58 +67%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,694 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 05 $83 +$24 +29%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $8,335 −$9 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3,094 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $610 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $1,058 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,503 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $2,056 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,151 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $51 +$91 +180%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,887 −$4 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $83 +$44 +52%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,646 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,648 −$3 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $6,026 −$6 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,628 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $5,789 −$9 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $2,890 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,942 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,070 −$4 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $2,835 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $2,930 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 3h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $950 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $952 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $314 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,631 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,634 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,636 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,638 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,612 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,614 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,667 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,669 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,610 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,613 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $433 10d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,667 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,645 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,648 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,678 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,680 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,665 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,668 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,650 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,652 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.43 · official $446.43 (match) · 566 history records