Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x4447…4fae crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%24W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% $0
world 49% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.5%
all 26 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×57.39 per $1 lost it wins $57.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses24 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage99d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 8? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 2? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 21? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 23? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 20? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $87 46m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $51 46m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $138 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $151 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $151 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $14 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $15 70d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $14 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 75d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $13 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 88d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 93d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 96d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records