Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x444b…a31d crypto 324 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$434 (+0%) realized +$434 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%318W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,245per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$14
14 days+$29
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$421
other 1% +$5
politics 1% −$3
tech 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 144 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 323 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×103.5 per $1 lost it wins $103.5
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$434
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses318 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)323 / 324
History coverage239d
Avg bet$1,245
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2,299 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? Jun 23 $362 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,357 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 21? Jun 21 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 21? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 21? Jun 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 21? Jun 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 21? Jun 21 $917 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 21? Jun 21 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 21? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,353 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,084 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $267 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,349 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,346 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 8-14? Jun 15 $2,344 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,342 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2,340 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,338 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,335 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,333 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,955 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 8? Jun 08 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.95 on June 7? Jun 08 $152 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 7? Jun 08 $875 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 7? Jun 08 $196 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $449 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,327 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,324 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,322 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,320 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2,100 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $217 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 31? Jun 01 $2,236 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 31? Jun 01 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 29? May 29 $323 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 29? May 29 $1,988 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 27? May 27 $2,309 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 26? May 26 $2,307 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24? May 25 $2,305 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on May 23? May 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 23? May 23 $285 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $64 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $2,299 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $362 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $999 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,357 3d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $18 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $177 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $917 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.60 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $999 4d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.70 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $108 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $195 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $2,353 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,084 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $200 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,349 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2,346 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $2,344 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,342 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $2,340 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $2,338 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $2,335 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $2,333 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.03 · official $152.03 (match) · 719 history records