Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x444b…3868 crypto 37 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,233 (+27%) realized +$1,233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,079
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 54% +11.6%
≤30d 37 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 54% +11.6%
≤90d 37 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 54% +11.6%
all 37 +4.8% -5.2% 54% 54% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 54% +11.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 54% +0.9%
15% -22.6% 54% -8.9%
20% -30.1% 54% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$88 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$49 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $218 +$208 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $170 +$109 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $96 +$93 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $380 +$402 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$38 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$38 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $106 +$96 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $107 +$82 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $1,202 +$884 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $366 −$366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $87 +$86 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$18 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$24 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $116 +$105 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $243 +$235 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $53 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $53 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $49 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $168 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $170 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $94 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $48 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $96 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $42 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $380 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $222 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $87 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $45 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $106 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $107 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $211 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $603 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $389 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $366 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $181 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $87 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $36 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $87 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $36 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records