Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x444c…9d2e
weather · 184 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,592 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$950 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$212
Realized−$950
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses114 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions13
Markets (closed)171 / 184
History coverage64d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 13 History 171 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$48
14 days+$36
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No 82¢ 78¢ $24 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 41¢ 36¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $231 −$125 -54%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $67 +$69 +103%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $2,017 +$122 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 11 $81 +$5 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 05 $49 +$7 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 05 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,388 +$50 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $57 −$42 -74%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 03 $820 −$40 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 02 $14 +$2 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 02 $68 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 02 $97 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 02 $12 +$2 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 01 $59 +$3 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +43%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $162 +$7 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $327 −$57 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 29 $16 +$2 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 29 $4 −$2 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $225 +$20 +9%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? May 28 $148 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $43 +$15 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? May 27 $1 $0 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $114 +$3 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 26 $6 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 25 $9 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $239 +$46 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 25 $11 +$5 +48%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30? May 25 $2 −$1 -39%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +36%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? May 22 $2 +$1 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $255 +$15 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +67%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? May 22 $9 $0 +3%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 21 $38 +$7 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18? May 21 $159 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21? May 20 $8 −$3 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 21% −$159
world 19% −$307
other 17% −$609
sports 14% −$829
politics 13% +$856
crypto 9% +$76
weather 4% +$22
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 11m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 38m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 44% -7.7%
≤30d 64 -1.2% -10.6% 75% 34% -8.7%
≤90d 171 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 32% -13.9%
all 171 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 32% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 32% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 19% -22.1%
15% -12.3% 13% -29.6%
20% -20.9% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.43 · official $212.43 (match) · 3500 history records