Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x444d…88ca sports 62 markets active 19h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$309 (-3%) realized −$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%30W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$108
14 days+$309
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$110
other 8% −$405
world 2% −$59
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +54.4% +39.7% 71% 57% +66.3%
≤30d 24 +20.8% +9.3% 58% 54% -11.8%
≤90d 58 +1.2% -8.4% 52% 50% -11.1%
all 58 +1.2% -8.4% 52% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -11.1%
10% -17.2% 50% -19.6%
15% -25.2% 48% -27.3%
20% -32.5% 45% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$156 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses30 / 28
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 62
History coverage51d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$59 +288%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $35 +$9 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $27 +$26 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win? Jun 07 $90 +$195 +216%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $238 −$234 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $255 −$209 -82%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $318 +$234 +74%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $162 −$159 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $559 −$548 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $505 −$497 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $203 +$174 +86%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $335 −$330 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $220 +$314 +143%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $461 +$354 +77%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $213 +$152 +72%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $120 +$95 +79%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $61 +$57 +93%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $329 +$200 +61%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $183 +$82 +45%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $178 +$212 +119%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $91 +$78 +85%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $433 −$424 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $411 −$357 -87%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $488 +$293 +60%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $203 +$174 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $254 −$250 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $384 +$284 +74%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $405 −$101 -25%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $272 +$215 +79%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $152 +$125 +82%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $101 +$71 +70%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $257 +$239 +93%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to Score May 08 $101 +$95 +93%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $260 −$257 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $71 +$61 +86%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $60 −$59 -97%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $74 −$54 -73%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $40 −$39 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 May 05 $72 +$69 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 15¢ $10 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 93¢ $44 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 66¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $10 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 68¢ $10 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 83¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 35¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 25¢ $20 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $27 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $20 8d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $10 10d
Will England win? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 11d
Will England win? BUY Yes 31¢ $90 14d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 1¢ $7 15d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 28¢ $2 15d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 30¢ $31 15d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 41¢ $19 15d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 39¢ $50 15d
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 50¢ $129 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 16d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 0¢ $1 16d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India BUY India 2¢ $2 16d
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India SELL India 11¢ $42 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records