Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x444e…1a78 sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,307 (-4%) realized −$1,307 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%92W / 54L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$201
14 days−$1,111
30 days−$1,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$377
crypto 18% −$295
other 8% −$664
economics 2% −$261
finance 1% +$130
tech 1% +$96
politics 1% −$15
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.9% -12.2% 56% 44% -24.6%
≤30d 28 +37.2% +24.1% 50% 43% -42.8%
≤90d 65 +8.6% -1.7% 58% 40% -19.7%
all 146 +23.0% +11.3% 63% 51% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 51% -13.7%
10% +0.7% 38% -22.0%
15% -9.1% 32% -29.5%
20% -18.0% 22% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$120 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$1,307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses92 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions6
Markets (closed)146 / 152
History coverage209d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 20¢ $63 $61 −$2 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 45¢ 46¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $79 +$21 +26%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $45 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $11 +$37 +348%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $105 +$19 +18%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $105 +$61 +58%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $106 −$100 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $190 +$10 +5%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +34%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $105 +$51 +49%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $104 +$15 +14%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $84 −$80 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $66 −$63 -95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $450 −$304 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $241 +$92 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $105 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $21 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $93 +$107 +114%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 +$36 +176%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $775 −$770 -99%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$28 +1116%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $713 −$208 -29%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $166 +$34 +20%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $175 +$25 +14%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $176 +$24 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $64 −$63 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 17 $104 −$104 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $920 +$3 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 May 17 $89 +$3 +3%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual May 16 $70 +$10 +15%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $650 +$25 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $614 +$12 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $1,035 +$16 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $101 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $2,451 +$113 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $436 −$416 -96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $616 +$71 +12%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $923 +$44 +5%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $275 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $100 +$17 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $185 +$31 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $64 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $45 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $29 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $37 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $79 24h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $31 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $45 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $105 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $106 3d
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $105 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $190 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $105 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $84 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $105 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $104 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 63¢ $66 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 10¢ $146 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 25¢ $250 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $200 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $99 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 69¢ $104 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 43¢ $20 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $105 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 41¢ $21 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $241 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.85 · official $195.85 (match) · 798 history records