Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4450…b1bc
sports · 30 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$37 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$30
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses18 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 81¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Katie Volynets 35¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 79¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Marie Bouzkova 58¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Gabriel Diallo 47¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 +$6 +15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 −$35 -88%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$23 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $20 +$8 +39%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $60 −$60 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $30 +$14 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $73 +$7 +10%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $150 +$8 +5%
Anastasia Potapova vs. Suzan Lamens: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$3 -20%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $30 +$9 +31%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $30 +$7 +24%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $15 +$9 +62%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $50 +$8 +16%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $45 −$15 -33%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $101 +$22 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% −$85
other 26% +$25
crypto 10% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 97¢ $46 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $5 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 89¢ $26 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 69¢ $35 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $40 3h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 4h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY $10 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 18h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 89¢ $43 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $13 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $20 2d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 97¢ $28 2d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 79¢ $30 2d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $44 2d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 80¢ $30 2d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $20 2d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $30 2d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $80 2d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 90¢ $73 2d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Marie Bouzkova 58¢ $30 3d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 100¢ $0 3d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 81¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -1.6% -10.9% 64% 54% -12.8%
≤30d 28 -1.6% -10.9% 64% 54% -12.8%
≤90d 28 -1.6% -10.9% 64% 54% -12.8%
all 28 -1.6% -10.9% 64% 54% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 54% -12.8%
10% -19.5% 32% -21.2%
15% -27.2% 18% -28.8%
20% -34.4% 11% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.23 · official $30.23 (match) · 57 history records