Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:34:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
44 0x4452…9ba5 politics 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% $0
politics 29% $0
world 23% +$5
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.7% +0.2% 67% 33% -8.1%
≤30d 7 +7.8% -2.5% 86% 29% -7.5%
≤90d 7 +7.8% -2.5% 86% 29% -7.5%
all 43 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage302d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +30%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $13 $0 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $40 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $46 +$2 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $17 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Dec 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $37 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $7 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $3 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $3 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $13 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $39 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $39 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $42 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 81¢ $41 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 14d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $5 189d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $3 189d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $10 189d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $16 192d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $6 201d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $6 265d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $6 265d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 98¢ $6 265d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 265d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.06 · official $41.06 (match) · 213 history records