trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 73¢ | $166 | $158 | −$8 (-5%) |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $116 | $0 | −$116 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 14 | $128 | +$38 | +30% |
| Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva | Jun 07 | $101 | +$20 | +20% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | Jun 05 | $100 | +$30 | +30% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $559 | +$69 | +12% |
| Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? | May 15 | $399 | +$160 | +40% |
| Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 | May 01 | $225 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Apr 29 | $139 | +$38 | +27% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Apr 01 | $170 | +$55 | +32% |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 23 | $115 | +$54 | +47% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Mar 16 | $103 | +$36 | +35% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Mar 08 | $116 | −$116 | -100% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar | Mar 08 | $134 | −$32 | -24% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 07 | $138 | −$4 | -3% |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Mar 04 | $105 | +$33 | +31% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +24.7% | +12.8% | 100% | 100% | +13.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +26.3% | +14.3% | 100% | 100% | +12.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +27.3% | +15.2% | 90% | 90% | +12.6% |
| all | 14 | +12.7% | +2.0% | 71% | 71% | +4.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +2.0% | 71% | +4.1% |
| 10% | -7.8% | 57% | -5.9% |
| 15% | -16.7% | 14% | -15.0% |
| 20% | -24.8% | 0% | -23.3% |