Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4457…f3e2 other 355 markets active 2h ago coverage 705d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,509 (-6%) realized −$7,498 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%108W / 243L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$325
7 days+$373
14 days+$4,210
30 days+$5,660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$2,040
politics 18% −$3,609
world 13% +$1,604
sports 9% −$2,074
crypto 5% −$1,662
economics 4% +$2,856
tech 2% −$2,247
weather 0% −$151
culture 0% −$410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +4.2% -5.7% 33% 33% -6.3%
≤30d 86 +36.9% +23.8% 37% 36% +13.1%
≤90d 239 -23.0% -30.3% 21% 21% -28.0%
all 351 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 30% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 30% -15.3%
10% -17.7% 29% -23.4%
15% -25.7% 27% -30.8%
20% -33.0% 26% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$558 vs −$280 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

705d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized−$7,498
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses108 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions2
Markets (closed)351 / 355
History coverage705d
Avg bet$345
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $384 $325 −$59 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $240 $288 +$48 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $434 +$266 +61%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Jun 25 $275 −$275 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $40 −$39 -97%
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 25 $189 +$411 +218%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 25 $55 +$345 +633%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $440 +$360 +82%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $113 −$13 -12%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $195 +$205 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $296 −$296 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $482 +$518 +108%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $600 +$400 +67%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $220 −$204 -93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $260 +$740 +285%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $300 +$300 +100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$151 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $156 −$156 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $190 −$190 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$21 +21%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $108 +$492 +456%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $215 −$215 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 +$688 +614%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $352 +$448 +127%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $400 +$600 +150%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,175 −$950 -81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $330 −$330 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $710 −$710 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $170 −$170 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $135 −$135 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $600 +$400 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $220 +$780 +354%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $312 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $49 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $59 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $94 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 2h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $3 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $119 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $56 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 14h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $7 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $109 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $21 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $6 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 30¢ $6 23h
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 32¢ $23 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.50 · official $612.50 (match) · 2906 history records