Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
44 0x4457…2c04 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 35% −$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $106 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $107 12h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $107 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $107 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 25d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 29d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $107 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $107 35d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $107 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $108 37d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 39d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 39d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $108 40d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $88 41d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 41d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $109 65d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $109 65d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 68d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 69d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $109 73d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 73d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $109 75d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $110 75d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 82d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 83d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $110 89d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $110 90d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records