Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x445a…4acb world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+5%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 33L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$8
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$8
other 32% +$45
politics 12% +$47
sports 11% +$44
weather 1% +$5
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 29 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 41 -5.3% -14.4% 39% 0% -9.6%
all 71 +8.9% -1.4% 54% 21% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 21% -5.2%
10% -10.9% 20% -14.3%
15% -19.5% 15% -22.6%
20% -27.4% 14% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.95 per $1 lost it wins $4.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage525d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $102 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $94 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $38 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $125 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $117 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $46 −$3 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $16 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $44 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $6 $0 -6%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 27 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $280 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $224 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $292 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislati May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Duquesne vs. La Salle Mar 20 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on Februar Feb 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February Feb 23 $13 +$9 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $31 4h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $8 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $12 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $25 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $4 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $4 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $27 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $9 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $20 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $37 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records