Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x445a…995f crypto 20 markets active 5d ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$16
sports 33% −$5
crypto 25% −$12
politics 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -22.1% -29.5% 50% 50% -35.1%
≤30d 9 +16.1% +5.1% 56% 56% +18.8%
≤90d 10 +4.5% -5.4% 50% 50% -7.2%
all 17 +1.4% -8.3% 41% 41% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 41% -15.5%
10% -17.0% 41% -23.6%
15% -25.1% 41% -31.0%
20% -32.4% 35% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage185d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$3 -60%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 +$12 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +111%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 17 $17 −$15 -91%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 12 $2 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Dec 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 14 $4 $0 -5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $8 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 14 $4 +$4 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14? Dec 14 $1 +$2 +141%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up $5 4d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $2 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 24¢ $2 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $5 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No $4 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 13d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 13d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 13d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 11¢ $5 13d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 34d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 160d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 160d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 188d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? SELL No 35¢ $4 188d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 188d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 188d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 189d
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 189d
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 189d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.46 · official $12.46 (match) · 34 history records