Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x445f…229f other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$111 (-8%) realized −$112 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$310
14 days−$298
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$237
sports 40% +$110
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -59.6% -63.4% 16% 12% -51.0%
≤30d 34 -44.9% -50.1% 24% 21% -19.7%
≤90d 34 -44.9% -50.1% 24% 21% -19.7%
all 34 -44.9% -50.1% 24% 21% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 21% -19.7%
10% -54.9% 21% -27.4%
15% -59.3% 21% -34.4%
20% -63.3% 21% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$19 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage22d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$48 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$2 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $114 −$30 -26%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +88%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 +$60 +234%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $16 +$10 +64%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $253 +$219 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $137 −$48 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $55 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $40 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $27 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 42¢ $27 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.90 · official $53.72 · 88 history records