Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x445f…cc13 weather 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+4%) realized +$38 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%76W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$59
14 days+$134
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% +$136
sports 29% +$90
crypto 17% −$150
other 5% −$25
economics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +26.1% +14.1% 68% 59% +12.5%
≤30d 61 +19.6% +8.2% 59% 56% +9.4%
≤90d 138 -25.8% -32.9% 38% 35% +6.3%
all 193 -20.5% -28.1% 39% 37% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 37% -7.0%
10% -35.0% 28% -15.9%
15% -41.3% 24% -24.0%
20% -47.0% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses76 / 117
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)193 / 196
History coverage214d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $36 $52 +$16 (+45%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? Yes 37¢ 31¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 20 $25 −$10 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 20 $16 +$3 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 20 $69 +$9 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 20 $19 +$11 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? Jun 18 $13 −$9 -70%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$20 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 18 $3 +$6 +170%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 18 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +73%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -27%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$30 +95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$13 +88%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $32 +$46 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $7 +$44 +603%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 07 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $17 −$11 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on May 29? May 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $11 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 29? May 28 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 30? May 28 $1 +$2 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $37 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 20h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 20¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 24h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 40¢ $10 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 66¢ $3 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 27¢ $3 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 67¢ $12 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 26¢ $3 25h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 25¢ $2 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 29h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 29h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $23 30h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 39h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 36¢ $63 46h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 38¢ $1 46h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 33¢ $68 46h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 25¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.36 · official $59.45 (match) · 707 history records