Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4460…54d1 world 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$219 (-1%) realized −$219 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate23%27W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$192
14 days−$242
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$48
world 26% −$124
crypto 11% +$21
politics 10% −$41
other 8% −$57
economics 7% −$3
tech 5% −$31
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -6.5% -15.4% 14% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 65 -5.2% -14.2% 9% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 90 -4.8% -13.9% 9% 0% -12.7%
all 117 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 9% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -11.1%
10% -18.3% 6% -19.6%
15% -26.2% 4% -27.4%
20% -33.5% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$219
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses27 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage449d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 20 $34 −$6 -18%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $158 −$20 -12%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $64 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $235 −$60 -26%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $105 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 20 $168 −$16 -10%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Jun 18 $92 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $268 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $139 −$5 -4%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $84 −$7 -8%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $245 −$5 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $174 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $102 −$25 -25%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $23 $0 -2%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $167 $0 +0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $26 −$9 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$5 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $148 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $245 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $216 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $134 −$4 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $146 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $216 −$12 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $104 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $266 −$14 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL No 58¢ $28 53m
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL No 70¢ $138 55m
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY No 79¢ $158 56m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $64 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $64 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $36 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $35 4h
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 62¢ $31 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 5h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY No 69¢ $34 5h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 6h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 6h
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 8h
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 8h
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 8h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 76¢ $147 9h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 76¢ $4 10h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 55¢ $13 31h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 31h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 31h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 31h
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 31h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $16 31h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $15 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $94 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 448 history records