trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +3.5% | -6.3% | 100% | 0% | -4.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 56% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 56% | 0% | -8.5% |
| all | 18 | -5.8% | -14.8% | 61% | 0% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.8% | 0% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -22.9% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $51 | $51 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 57¢ | 56¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $43 | +$4 | +9% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 04 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 03 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 02 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 01 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 31 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 30 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Will the next Pope be from North America? | May 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? | Apr 05 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Apr 03 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Mar 20 | $15 | $0 | -0% |