Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4462…b29b
crypto · 768 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$839 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,550 · open −$81
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$100
Realized−$1,550
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses409 / 522
Open positions15
Markets (closed)931 / 768
History coverage12d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day276.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 15 History 931 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$849
7 days−$1,102
14 days−$1,550
30 days−$1,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 44¢ 44¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $51 $14 −$37 (-73%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $28 $8 −$20 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-55%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Down 63¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 38¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 4¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $0 −$2 -2870%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -2785%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on May 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on May 19? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on May 26? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Jun 14 $0 −$2 -1668%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 14 $0 −$3 -2047%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 26? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 14 $2 −$4 -235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $385 on May 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -1062%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on May 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$797
tech 1% −$78
other 0% −$4
finance 0% +$3
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 45¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 44¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 -40.3% -46.0% 35% 31% -20.4%
≤30d 931 -26.2% -33.2% 44% 39% -17.8%
≤90d 931 -26.2% -33.2% 44% 39% -17.8%
all 931 -26.2% -33.2% 44% 39% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover276.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.2% 39% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -39.6% 33% -25.7%
15% -45.4% 28% -32.9%
20% -50.8% 22% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.45 · official $99.29 · 3500 history records