Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

44 0x4467…55d2 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$255per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$1,564now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-16.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-14.9%
≤30d	6	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-14.9%
≤90d	6	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-14.9%
all	6	-7.3%	-16.1%	50%	50%	-14.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.1%	50%	-14.9%
10%	-24.1%	50%	-23.1%
15%	-31.5%	33%	-30.5%
20%	-38.2%	33%	-37.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$70 vs −$81 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.87 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,564

Realized+$8

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$255

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1,200	$1,211	+$11 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$200	$194	−$6 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$75	−$70	-94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Jun 18	$47	+$14	+29%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$106	−$66	-62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$105	+$59	+56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$106	−$106	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$106	+$138	+131%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	12¢	$53	1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	BUY Yes	74¢	$47	4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	9¢	$40	4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$213	8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$105	10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$106	11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$106	26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1,282	26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$106	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,563.70 · official $1,563.70 (match) · 14 history records