Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

44 0x446a…88ee other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$145 (+13%) realized +$145 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate91%10W / 1L

Drawdown25%max

Avg bet$105per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+33.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+47.1%	+33.0%	91%	64%	+3.2%
≤30d	11	+47.1%	+33.0%	91%	64%	+3.2%
≤90d	11	+47.1%	+33.0%	91%	64%	+3.2%
all	11	+47.1%	+33.0%	91%	64%	+3.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.0%	64%	+3.2%
10%	+20.3%	27%	-6.7%
15%	+8.7%	9%	-15.7%
20%	-2.0%	9%	-24.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

30% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.06 per $1 lost it wins $5.06

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$145

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)91%

Wins / losses10 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage4d

Avg bet$105

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown25%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$241	+$21	+9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$210	+$30	+14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$201	+$9	+5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$169	+$31	+18%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 19	$131	+$38	+29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$114	+$18	+16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$4	+20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	+$49	+474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$1	+6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	92¢	$241	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	87¢	$210	9h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	96¢	$201	26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	84¢	$169	38h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	77¢	$131	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	86¢	$114	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	83¢	$20	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$40	3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	93¢	$21	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$1	3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	87¢	$20	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records