Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x446f…78eb world 85 markets active 3h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$17
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$30
other 28% +$11
politics 14% $0
sports 4% +$5
economics 3% −$3
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 42 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 84 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage275d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $62 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $114 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $57 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $7 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $114 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $72 −$20 -28%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $160 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $73 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $85 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $148 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $345 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $72 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $158 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $172 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $68 +$4 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $67 −$24 -35%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $89 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $96 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $177 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $95 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $601 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $85 −$3 -3%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Jan 31 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $46 +$20 +44%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $17 $0 -3%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $23 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $57 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $20 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $57 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $57 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $57 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $57 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $39 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $6 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $58 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $57 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.72 · official $57.72 (match) · 336 history records