Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4471…3f7b other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$594 (-70%) realized −$520 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%51W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$884
7 days−$933
14 days−$1,018
30 days−$1,018
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$39
sports 20% −$92
crypto 2% −$12
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-63.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -68.2% -71.2% 21% 17% -51.4%
≤30d 239 -59.8% -63.6% 21% 17% -54.5%
≤90d 239 -59.8% -63.6% 21% 17% -54.5%
all 239 -59.8% -63.6% 21% 17% -54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.6% 17% -54.5%
10% -67.1% 13% -58.9%
15% -70.3% 10% -62.8%
20% -73.2% 8% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized−$520
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses51 / 188
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions37
Markets (closed)239 / 85
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $55 $64 +$10 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 72¢ 99¢ $34 $47 +$13 (+38%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 56¢ $49 $34 −$15 (-30%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-18%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-29%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? No 84¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $24 $3 −$21 (-87%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 45¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 20? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27? Jun 24 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9? Jun 24 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 29? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 24 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on April 18? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 1? Jun 24 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 24 $5 −$10 -200%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 21? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Canne Jun 24 $33 −$66 -200%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 24 $28 −$55 -200%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 24 $11 −$23 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 24 $7 −$14 -200%
Will "Unchosen" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 24 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 30? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -206%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 24 $2 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on April 30? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 1? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -204%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 Jun 24 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 24 $6 −$13 -201%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 30? Jun 24 $1 −$2 -200%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 24 $0 +$19 +16472%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 24 $32 −$63 -200%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 57m? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 30? Jun 24 $2 −$4 -200%
Ethereum ETF Flows on June 5? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $47 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $47 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 3h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $1 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 38h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.00 · official $419.85 (match) · 3500 history records