Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:03:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4473…59ed world 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 22% −$3
politics 19% +$3
sports 6% −$4
economics 5% +$1
crypto 3% −$14
finance 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.9% +1.2% 50% 12% -6.7%
≤30d 31 +3.4% -6.4% 45% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 73 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 3% -9.6%
all 93 +0.8% -8.8% 35% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 60
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)93 / 98
History coverage290d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $133 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $156 −$2 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $157 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $127 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $140 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 +$36 +94%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $617 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $488 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $334 −$58 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $213 +$4 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $134 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $119 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $251 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $281 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $102 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $263 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $250 −$5 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $102 +$21 +21%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $7 +$1 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $423 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $13 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $130 −$3 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $154 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $389 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $278 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $294 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $432 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $154 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $25 $0 +1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $159 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $133 0m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $133 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 21¢ $12 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $15 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $88 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $26 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $19 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $8 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $138 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $155 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $156 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $142 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $142 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $156 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $155 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $126 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $127 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $51 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $140 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $140 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $25 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $110 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $129 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $20 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $53 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $0.00 · 458 history records